July 9, 2026
Commercial Planning Retreats, Institutional Activity Accelerates
$300+ million projects get rolling in California, Tennessee and North Carolina
For months, the Dodge Momentum Index has been on an extraordinary run, propelled almost single handedly by an unprecedented wave of data center planning. In June, that run finally caught its breath. According to Dodge Construction Network, the Index fell 1.9% to 271.7, pulling back from May's upwardly revised reading of 277.1, as commercial planning momentum eased from the torrid pace that defined the first half of the year.
But a slowdown in one sector does not equal a slowdown in the broader market. Institutional planning surged 10.9% over the month, with healthcare, recreational, government and religious projects all gaining ground. Even the commercial retreat carries an asterisk: strip out data centers entirely, and commercial planning would still be up 7.6% from a year ago. The story emerging from June's data is less about a cooling market and more about one sector, for the moment, stepping back to let others catch up.
The DMI is a monthly measure based on the three month moving value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year to 18 months.
Dodge Momentum Index
Commercial Building
Institutional Building
Market Analysis
"Despite June's pullback, nonresidential planning remains on solid ground. Data center activity continued to drive the Index, but its pace moderated from the extraordinary levels seen in recent months and drove the DMI to pull back over the month. Otherwise, planning activity accelerated across nearly every other sector."
Sector Performance Highlights
Gaining Momentum
- Institutional (+10.9%): Healthcare planning continued to accelerate, alongside recreational, government and religious building activity
- Office, Warehouse, Retail and Hotel: All improved within the commercial segment over the month
Losing Momentum
- Commercial (-6.8%): Slowing data center planning drove the month's overall decline
- Educational: Planning slowed for a second consecutive month
Year-over-Year Performance (June 2026 vs June 2025)
Major Projects Entering Planning in June
A total of 59 projects valued at $100 million or more entered planning throughout June, underscoring that despite the monthly pullback, big ticket development activity remains robust.
The pause in data center planning growth follows an extraordinary run that had pushed commercial momentum to record territory, and Dodge Construction Network's data suggests this is a moderation rather than a reversal. With institutional planning accelerating across healthcare, recreation, government and religious building types, the broader nonresidential planning picture continues to point toward sustained construction activity over the next 12 to 18 months.
Data Source: Dodge Construction Network
The DMI is a monthly measure based on the three month moving value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year to 18 months.
