October 14, 2025
Latest NEMA Survey Signals Cautious Optimism
Manufacturers report stable activity despite economic uncertainties
Each month, the National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA) publishes the Electroindustry Business Confidence Index (EBCI). The index is based on surveys of senior managers at NEMA member companies – designed to gauge the business environment of the electroindustry in North America. Member companies include most of the ten largest lighting manufacturers in North America, along with other manufacturers of lighting, electrical and medical imaging products.
Manufacturers of electrical equipment are signaling a mix of optimism and caution in the latest NEMA Electroindustry Business Confidence Index. The survey shows modest cooling in both current and forward-looking indicators.
While business sentiment remains generally positive, respondents cite tariffs and economic uncertainty as ongoing challenges — tempering expectations for near-term growth even as many continue to report stable or improving activity.
This most recent ECBI shows how makers of electrical equipment view current and future market conditions. Below are the details:
The Current Conditions component eased slightly in September, slipping to 55.0 from 59.1 in August.
Respondents reporting “better” conditions rose to 30 percent, while those viewing conditions as “worse” increased to 20 percent. Fifty percent of respondents indicated that conditions remained unchanged. Comments were mixed. Several respondents cited ongoing concerns about tariffs and noted that continued uncertainty is negatively affecting business. However, one panel member reported that despite the “noise,” business continued to improve, suggesting uneven impact across sectors from shifting tariff policies.
The median value for the magnitude of change in current conditions stayed at 0.0, with the mean decreasing to 0.3. Panelists are asked to report the magnitude of change on a scale ranging from –5 (deteriorated significantly) through 0 (unchanged) to +5 (improved significantly).
The Future Conditions component declined to 70.0 in September from 72.7 in August, reflecting a modest pullback in optimism. Half of respondents expected conditions to be “better” six months from now, while 10 percent anticipated “worse” conditions, and 40 percent saw them remaining “unchanged.” Some participants expressed hope that current market uncertainty would begin to ease, with expectations of interest rate relief and greater clarity around tariffs.
Others warned that tariff-related inflation could begin to affect business conditions in the near term. While overall sentiment remained positive, it was tempered by divergent views on how key economic pressures will play out.
SURVEY RESULTS:
- Values reflect the percentage of respondents expecting "Better" conditions, plus one-half of the percentage of respondents expecting "Unchanged" conditions.
- A score of 50 or higher suggests conditions appropriate to expansion of the electroindustry sector.
- Please note that survey responses were collected from the period of September 15-26, 2025.
EBCI METHODOLOGY:
The EBCI indexes are based on the results of a monthly survey of senior managers at NEMA member companies and are designed to gauge the business environment of the electroindustry in North America (defined here as the United States and Canada).
The survey contains the following questions:
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How would you rate current economic conditions in North America, as they affect your business, compared to the previous month?
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Using the following scale, please describe the magnitude of change in economic conditions in North America this month compared to economic conditions last month? [Scale structured as follows: 5 (improved significantly), 4, 3, 2, 1, 0 (stayed the same), -1, -2, -3, -4, -5 (deteriorated significantly)]
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How do you expect economic conditions in North America, as they affect your business, to have changed six months from now?
Respondents are asked to indicate whether conditions are better, worse, or unchanged. The survey also provides space for respondents to comment on current conditions. These comments are included below the table containing the index levels.
The index value is the percentage of respondents expecting “Better” conditions, plus one-half of the percentage of respondents expecting “Unchanged” conditions, which follows the methodology used by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM; formerly the National Association of Purchasing Management) in the construction of their manufacturing index.
Reprinted by permission of the National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA)
