December 8, 2025
Commercial Project Planning Dips Slightly in November
$300+ million projects get rolling in Michigan, Arizona and Illinois
The nonresidential construction planning pipeline is experiencing a measured cooldown after months of unprecedented momentum, according to the latest data from Dodge Construction Network. The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) declined 1.1% in November to 276.8, down from October's revised reading of 280.0, as institutional projects pulled back sharply while commercial activity plateaued. The retreat signals a maturing cycle where the extraordinary surge driven by data center development and pandemic-era stimulus begins to normalize against a backdrop of persistent inflation and macroeconomic uncertainty.
Despite the monthly decline, the planning pipeline remains remarkably elevated in historical context. Year-to-date, the DMI stands 36% above the same period in 2024, while the November reading represents a stunning 50% surge compared to November 2024. This sustained strength masks diverging sector dynamics: while data centers, traditional office buildings, and retail stores maintained planning momentum, warehouses and hotels cooled considerably.
The institutional side faced broader headwinds, with education, healthcare, and public facilities retreating after several robust months, though religious building planning continued its unexpected acceleration.
November 2025
Month-over-Month
Month-over-Month
November 2025 Index Values
| Category | Nov-25 | Oct-25 | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodge Momentum Index | 276.8 | 280.0 | -1.1% |
| Commercial Building | 348.3 | 348.8 | -0.1% |
| Institutional Building | 188.3 | 194.9 | -3.4% |
Sector Performance Highlights
Commercial Sectors Maintaining Momentum
Data centers, traditional office buildings, and retail stores sustained planning momentum throughout November, providing crucial support to overall commercial activity despite weakness in warehouses and hotels.
Religious Building Planning Accelerates
Religious building planning continued its surprising acceleration trend, bucking the broader institutional sector retreat and suggesting renewed community investment in spiritual infrastructure.
Market Challenges
Institutional Sectors Face Broad Retreat
Education, healthcare, public facilities, and recreational planning all experienced weaker momentum in November after several months of robust activity, contributing to the 3.4% decline in the institutional segment.
Warehouse and Hotel Planning Slows
Commercial activity cooled notably in warehouse and hotel sectors, signaling potential caution among developers about near-term demand in logistics and hospitality markets.
Year-over-Year Performance
November 2024
(+36% ex-data centers)
vs. November 2024
Major Projects Entering Planning
A total of 28 projects valued at $100 million or more entered planning throughout November.
Largest Commercial Projects
Mesa, Arizona
Hoffman Estates, Illinois
Medina, Texas
Largest Institutional Projects
Novi, Michigan
Williamsburg, Virginia
Mountain View, California
Given the persistent economic and fiscal uncertainty, volatility in planning activity will remain high. On the commercial side, all sectors sustained momentum throughout November, notably led by strength in data centers, traditional office buildings, and retail stores. If all data center projects between 2023 and 2025 are excluded, commercial planning would still be up 36% from year-ago levels, driven by sustained momentum in office and retail planning alongside the earlier surge in warehouse and automotive facilities.
Year-to-Date Performance
Data Source: Dodge Construction Network
The DMI is a monthly measure based on the three-month moving value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year to 18 months.
