December 11, 2025
NEMA Survey Finds Steady Market, Rising Optimism for 2026
Most respondents report unchanged environment with few signs of decline
Each month, the National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA) publishes the Electroindustry Business Confidence Index (EBCI). The index is based on surveys of senior managers at NEMA member companies – designed to gauge the business environment of the electroindustry in North America. Member companies include most of the ten largest lighting manufacturers in North America, along with other manufacturers of lighting, electrical and medical imaging products.
In the latest survey, managers reported a largely steady operating environment, with most respondents indicating that current business conditions have changed little since October. At the same time, confidence in the near-term outlook strengthened considerably.
November’s data show a sharp rise in expectations for improved conditions six months out, supported by clearer policy signals and steady orders activity in several key markets. Taken together, the results point to stability today and growing optimism for the first half of next year.
This most recent ECBI shows how makers of electrical equipment view current and future market conditions. Below are the details:
The Current Conditions component held steady at 58.3 in November. The share of respondents reporting “better” conditions was 25 percent, while those viewing conditions as “worse” declined to 8.3 percent. A majority, 66.7 percent, indicated that conditions remained unchanged. This distribution reflects a stable environment, with most panel members seeing little change from the previous month.
Respondent comments were mixed, with some panelists highlighting strong electrical business activity while others noted lagging performance in general manufacturing and continued uncertainty in the market.
The median value for the magnitude of change in current conditions increased to 0.5, while the mean rose to 0.7, both up from the previous month. Panelists are asked to report the magnitude of change on a scale ranging from –5 (deteriorated significantly) through 0 (unchanged) to +5 (improved significantly).
The Future Conditions component surged to 79.2 in November, reflecting a notable increase in optimism compared to the previous month. Two-thirds of panel members (66.7 percent) expected conditions to be “better” six months from now, while 25 percent anticipated “worse” conditions, and 8.3 percent saw them remaining “unchanged.” Respondent comments reflected a mix of perspectives. Despite concerns over slowing consumer activity, panelist comments supported the improved outlook by noting better clarity regarding tariff policy and strong orders activity in key markets.
SURVEY RESULTS:
- Values reflect the percentage of respondents expecting "Better" conditions, plus one-half of the percentage of respondents expecting "Unchanged" conditions.
- A score of 50 or higher suggests conditions appropriate to expansion of the electroindustry sector.
- Please note that survey responses were collected from the period of November 12-26, 2025.
EBCI METHODOLOGY:
The EBCI indexes are based on the results of a monthly survey of senior managers at NEMA member companies and are designed to gauge the business environment of the electroindustry in North America (defined here as the United States and Canada).
The survey contains the following questions:
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How would you rate current economic conditions in North America, as they affect your business, compared to the previous month?
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Using the following scale, please describe the magnitude of change in economic conditions in North America this month compared to economic conditions last month? [Scale structured as follows: 5 (improved significantly), 4, 3, 2, 1, 0 (stayed the same), -1, -2, -3, -4, -5 (deteriorated significantly)]
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How do you expect economic conditions in North America, as they affect your business, to have changed six months from now?
Respondents are asked to indicate whether conditions are better, worse, or unchanged. The survey also provides space for respondents to comment on current conditions. These comments are included below the table containing the index levels.
The index value is the percentage of respondents expecting “Better” conditions, plus one-half of the percentage of respondents expecting “Unchanged” conditions, which follows the methodology used by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM; formerly the National Association of Purchasing Management) in the construction of their manufacturing index.
Reprinted by permission of the National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA)
