March 18, 2025
Three Things Spooking Lighting People Right Now
Unpredictable trade policies make planning a nightmare for lighting industry stakeholders
For years, North American lighting manufacturers operated in an industry where stability was more or less a given. Supply chains, pricing models, and long-term forecasts all relied on a relatively predictable playing field. But today, that certainty is gone. In its place? A volatile mix of trade disruptions, soaring costs, and a deepening sense of unease about what comes next.
Three major concerns are keeping lighting executives awake at night: Canadian exporters are feeling the squeeze, new steel and aluminum tariffs are shaking the market, and an overarching climate of unpredictability is making it nearly impossible to plan ahead.
1. Canadian Exporters Are on Edge More Than Most
If you’re a Canadian lighting manufacturer that ships into the U.S., today’s trade environment is unnerving. For some, it’s existential. Many of these companies export 60%, 75%, or even 90% of their sales south of the border — meaning a shift in U.S. trade policy isn’t just a headache; it’s a direct threat to survival. Already grappling with a weaker Canadian dollar, they now face a much bigger problem: tariffs that could price them out of their biggest market.
With over 77% of Canadian exports heading south, the U.S. is by far Canada’s largest trading partner. But with the latest wave of tariffs in effect — and the potential for more to be added soon — what was once a stable, tariff-free relationship under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is now looking increasingly uncertain. Companies have two choices: absorb most or all of the costs and take a hit on margins, or pass them onto U.S. customers and risk losing business.
The latest developments also introduce new concerns. The White House has now signaled that it may impose both broad reciprocal tariffs and additional sector-specific tariffs, potentially on top of those already in place. While details remain unclear, this could mean that Canadian lighting companies — already hit by steel and aluminum tariffs — may also see new duties on electrical components, finished goods, or other key materials.
2. Steel & Aluminum Tariffs: A Hit to Many U.S. Manufacturers
President Trump’s removal of exemptions from his 2018 tariffs and his decision to increase rates to 25% on steel and aluminum imports are now in full effect. For U.S. lighting manufacturers that rely on these metals for poles, fixtures, housings, and mounting systems, costs are set to rise sharply. And for those hoping to sidestep the tariffs by sourcing from domestic suppliers, think again — many U.S. steelmakers, including United States Steel Corporation (which owns Canada’s Stelco), are themselves major importers of Canadian steel. That means price hikes are coming across the board, regardless of where manufacturers source their raw materials.
The U.S. Census Bureau reports that Canada accounted for 22.7% of total U.S. steel imports in 2024, making it the largest supplier. With new tariffs in place, downstream manufacturers are in trouble. A 2023 U.S. International Trade Commission report found that steel and aluminum tariffs caused a net economic loss, with U.S. manufacturers losing $3.5 billion in production due to higher costs — outweighing the $2.3 billion gain for domestic steel and aluminum producers.
2024 Top 10 Steel Exporters to the U.S.
| Country | Steel Imports (Metric Tons) | Import Value (Billion $) |
|---|---|---|
| Canada | 5,952,054 | 7.1 |
| Brazil | 4,080,695 | 3.0 |
| Mexico | 3,194,752 | 3.5 |
| Korea | 2,548,877 | 2.9 |
| Japan | 1,070,681 | 1.7 |
| Germany | 975,878 | 1.9 |
| Taiwan | 917,760 | 1.3 |
| China | 470,197 | 0.8 |
| Turkey | 391,444 | 0.4 |
| United Kingdom | 240,397 | 0.4 |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Lighting companies that manufacture in the U.S. but depend on imported steel and aluminum are now faced with a stark reality: either raise prices or take a hit on profitability. Neither option is appealing, especially when competition remains fierce.
3. The Uncertainty Tax
Perhaps the biggest challenge for the industry isn’t just the tariffs themselves—it’s the unpredictability surrounding them. The constant back-and-forth on trade policy has made it nearly impossible for companies to plan ahead.
Consider the timeline: Tariffs were threatened, enacted, and then rolled back for Canada and Mexico, only to be reinstated weeks later. In just the past few months, lighting manufacturers have been forced to guess whether they should stockpile materials, shift sourcing strategies, or adjust pricing models. And with another decision looming on April 2, the uncertainty is paralyzing.
Executives across the industry are expressing frustration, with many questioning how to set prices or commit to long-term contracts when costs could shift overnight. The construction market is feeling the squeeze as well. Developers are delaying projects due to pricing instability, contractors are struggling to lock in bids, and suppliers are hedging by either raising prices preemptively or holding back inventory. According to the Canadian Federation of Independent Business, 82% of Canadian businesses trading with the U.S. anticipate significant impacts from the tariff uncertainty, with nearly half saying it could take six months or more to pivot to alternative markets or suppliers.
The Bottom Line
For lighting companies on both sides of the border, the only certainty right now is uncertainty. Canadian exporters are bracing for impact, U.S. manufacturers are watching material costs climb, and the entire industry is caught in a waiting game over trade policy that changes by the week.
Will April 2 bring another reversal? Another exemption? Another escalation? No one knows. And that’s exactly what’s sppoking everyone the most.
