February 27, 2025
Trump’s Tariff Gambit: Lighting Industry Prepares for Impact
Mexico and Canada brace for 25% tariffs, plus an extra 10% tax on Chinese imports
The lighting industry has been here before — watching as the U.S. president threatens sweeping tariffs, forcing manufacturers and distributors to scramble for contingency plans. But until the ink dries on the official legal measures, nothing is truly set in stone.
On Truth Social today, President Donald Trump declared that 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports will take effect on Tuesday, March 4, with an additional 10% slapped onto Chinese goods, bringing the total tariff burden on those imports to 20%. He framed the move as a crackdown on fentanyl trafficking, tying economic policy to border security and drug enforcement. But while his words sent shockwaves through markets, history suggests last-minute reversals, delays, or adjustments remain entirely possible.
For now, the industry waits, knowing full well that when trade wars escalate, the North American lighting industry will take a direct hit.
Is it going to happen this time?
This wouldn’t be the first time President Trump has announced a major tariff shift on social media, only for details to shift in the days and weeks that follow. His administration previously put the same tariffs on hold for a month, and White House officials have contradicted each other on timelines and policy direction.
Until the legal process plays out, these tariffs remain more of a threat than a certainty. But that uncertainty alone is enough to cause trouble. Distributors and manufacturers now have to consider their next moves.
One thing is clear: If these tariffs become reality, they will hit hard. The 25% tax on goods from Mexico and Canada will impact lighting components and finished products alike. Meanwhile, the extra 10% on Chinese imports raises the stakes for companies that rely on China for essential parts like LED drivers, chips, other electronics and finished goods. Some companies may delay price increases by burning through existing stock, but once pre-tariff inventory runs dry, higher costs will trickle down.
A Brewing Trade War — And a Potential Backlash
If history is any indication, Canada and Mexico will not take this quietly. In previous trade disputes, both countries retaliated with their own tariffs on U.S. goods. Canadian officials have already floated a $30 billion response plan, while Mexico’s government is working behind the scenes to prevent escalation. If countermeasures take effect, U.S. lighting products could become less competitive in Canada, too, cutting into sales and reshaping supply chains.
China, meanwhile, remains a complicated puzzle. Some lighting companies have spent years reducing reliance on Chinese manufacturing, shifting production to Mexico or other countries. But for many, China is still the primary source for affordable finished goods, LED chips, drivers and other components. A 2025 jump from 10% to 20% tariffs on top of President Trump's 2018 tariffs will continue to squeeze margins, potentially inspiring companies to source from Vietnam, India, or other alternatives — an expensive and time-consuming process.
For now, the industry is caught in a high-stakes waiting game. Tariffs could take effect next week, or they could be delayed, softened, or scrapped altogether. Either way, uncertainty is the only sure thing.
