January 12, 2026
Commercial Project Planning Climbs on Data, Health Sectors
$300+ million projects get rolling in Oklahoma, Florida and South Carolina
The latest Dodge Momentum Index update from Dodge Construction Network lands like a calm headline over a noisy market: planning activity moved higher in December, even as inflation, financing friction, and election-year uncertainty remain in the background hum. What stands out is not simply the headline gain, but the composition beneath it. Commercial planning continued to grind upward, led by warehouses, offices, and data centers—sectors that tend to reflect near-term confidence in logistics and digital infrastructure.
The sharper signal came from institutional planning, where education and recreational projects pushed activity meaningfully higher. This is the kind of shift that can be easy to miss in month-to-month noise, yet meaningful for product manufacturers and contractors tracking where demand may congeal next. The index is not a promise of starts tomorrow, but it is a map of where money is trying to go—and December’s map got a little more crowded.
What the DMI measures: The Dodge Momentum Index is a monthly measure based on the three-month moving value of nonresidential building projects entering planning. Dodge Construction Network has found it typically leads construction spending for nonresidential buildings by 12 to 18 months.
Expert view
“Nonresidential construction starts (excluding manufacturing and transportation) are projected to accelerate in 2027 alongside sustained planning momentum in data center, healthcare and recreational building construction throughout 2025. Inflationary pressures will further support nominal activity levels, even as economic risks remain elevated. Notably, projects moved through the planning process marginally quicker in 25-Q4 (16 months vs. 18 months in 25-Q3), offering a modest boost to our near-term outlook.”
— Sarah Martin, Associate Director of Forecasting, Dodge Construction Network
Sector performance highlights
Commercial momentum improved most strongly in warehouses, office buildings, and data centers, reinforcing the idea that logistics and digital capacity remain priority spending lanes even when broader risk sentiment is mixed.
Institutional planning posted the strongest growth, led by education and recreational buildings. Planning for public buildings pulled back after elevated activity in mid-2025.
Year-over-year vs. year-to-date
Year-to-date (2025 vs. 2024 average): The DMI was up 37% versus the average 2024 reading. The commercial component was up 35%, and the institutional component was up 43%. (This is distinct from the year-over-year comparison above, which benchmarks December-to-December.)
Major projects entering planning in December
A total of 34 projects valued at $100 million or more entered planning during December, with data centers dominating the commercial headline set and large healthcare and hospitality-style developments leading the institutional list.
Summit, Oklahoma
Loxahatchee, Florida
Loxahatchee, Florida
Fort Mill, South Carolina
Stockton, California
Clovis, New Mexico
Additional context: why this matters to the pipeline
December’s improvement does not erase the macro risks — capital remains selective, and timelines can stretch when rates, labor availability, and entitlement friction collide. But the mix of activity is instructive: data center planning continues to act as a ballast on the commercial side, while institutional gains in education and recreation suggest that owners are still willing to place longer-horizon bets where funding and community priorities align. Dodge notes that projects moved through planning modestly faster in late 2025, a small but real improvement that can compound into more starts if the next few quarters do not reintroduce delays.
Data Source: Dodge Construction Network
The DMI is a monthly measure based on the three-month moving value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year to 18 months.
