March 9, 2026

Commercial Planning Slows, Yet Pipeline Remains Strong

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$250+ million projects get rolling in Texas, Maryland and Florida

After an unusually active back half of 2025, the Dodge Momentum Index pulled back in February — a retreat that forecasters at Dodge Construction Network say looks more like normalization than deterioration. The index landed at 250.0 (2000=100), down 7.3% from January's downwardly revised 269.8. Commercial planning led the month-over-month decline at -8.9%, while institutional planning gave back 4.0%.

Yet behind the monthly pullback, a more nuanced story is unfolding. Strip away the headline dip, and what emerges is a planning pipeline still running remarkably hot by historical standards — up 18.7% compared to February 2025. Institutional planning, in particular, has surged 34.0% year-over-year, while commercial activity — even with data centers removed from the equation — is still running 4.4% above last year's pace. The February softening, forecasters suggest, is less a warning signal than a natural exhale after one of the most active planning stretches in recent memory.

About the DMI: The Dodge Momentum Index is a monthly measure based on the three-month moving value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year to 18 months.

Dodge Momentum Index

-7.3%

250.0 vs. 269.8 (Jan)

Commercial Building

-8.9%

300.0 vs. 329.5 (Jan)

Institutional Building

-4.0%

188.1 vs. 195.9 (Jan)

	Feb-26	Jan-26	% Change
Dodge Momentum Index	250.0	269.8	-7.3%
Commercial Building	300.0	329.5	-8.9%
Institutional Building	188.1	195.9	-4.0%

Source: Dodge Construction Network (2000=100, Seasonally Adjusted)

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW

"Planning momentum continued to normalize in February after a surge in activity in the back half of 2025. Elevated risks around costs, labor, and geopolitics will continue to constrain builder confidence in the near-term but the robust planning pipeline suggests an acceleration in construction spending in 2027."

— Sarah Martin, Associate Director of Forecasting, Dodge Construction Network

Sector Performance Highlights

Commercial: Planning momentum slowed across all commercial sectors in February — with warehouses the sole exception. Despite the broad monthly retreat, project momentum for retail stores, recreational buildings, data centers, and healthcare facilities remains elevated relative to historical norms.

Institutional: All institutional sectors decelerated, with public buildings registering the sharpest contraction of the month. The segment still leads year-over-year performance, however, up 34.0% from February 2025.

Year-Over-Year Performance (February 2026 vs. February 2025)

+18.7%

Total DMI

+12.3%

Commercial Segment

(+4.4% ex-data centers)

+34.0%

Institutional Segment

Major Projects Entering Planning

23 projects valued at $100 million or more entered planning in February 2026.

Commercial

CyrusOne Data Center
Whitney, Texas

$500M

TX12 Data Center
San Antonio, Texas

$448M

QTS DFW2 Data Center (Buildings 5 & 6)
Wilmer, Texas

$290M

Institutional

Orange County Convention Center Grand Concourse Expansion (Phase 5A)
Orlando, Florida

$400M

School Replacement Project
Upper Marlboro, Maryland

$254M

Langley F-22 Dormitory Building
McLean, Virginia

$250M

Given the persistent economic and fiscal uncertainty, volatility in planning activity will remain high. On the commercial side, nearly all sectors slowed over the month — warehouses were the lone holdout. If all data center projects are removed from the commercial comparison, the segment is still running 4.4% above year-ago levels, underscoring that the planning cycle has broadened beyond just one red-hot category.

Data Source: Dodge Construction Network

The DMI is a monthly measure based on the three-month moving value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year to 18 months.