September 15, 2025
NEMA Survey Reveals Stability Amid Tariff Concerns
Despite noise, forward-looking expectations suggest resilient demand ahead
Each month, the National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA) publishes the Electroindustry Business Confidence Index (EBCI). The index is based on surveys of senior managers at NEMA member companies – designed to gauge the business environment of the electroindustry in North America. Member companies include most of the ten largest lighting manufacturers in North America, along with other manufacturers of lighting, electrical and medical imaging products.
Respondents reporting “better” conditions increased to 27 percent, while those seeing conditions as “worse” edged down to 9 percent. The majority, 64 percent, continued to view conditions as unchanged. Comments reflected a mix of caution and resilience. A few respondents expressed concern and uncertainty around tariffs and the producer price index, while others noted steady demand and reported good sales activity.
This most recent ECBI shows how makers of electrical equipment view current and future market conditions. Below are the details:
The August survey pointed to renewed stability after July’s dip.
The Current Conditions component rebounded to 59.1, with more respondents reporting “better” business activity and fewer noting deterioration. While most panelists continued to characterize the environment as unchanged, comments reflected a cautious mix—some respondents citing tariff concerns and uncertainty around pricing, while others pointed to steady demand and healthy sales pipelines. The magnitude of change indicator held close to neutral, underscoring an industry that is steady but still weighing external pressures.
The median value for the magnitude of change in current conditions stayed at 0.0, with the mean increasing to 0.4. Panelists are asked to report the magnitude of change on a scale ranging from –5 (deteriorated significantly) through 0 (unchanged) to +5 (improved significantly).
The Future Conditions component edged down to 72.7 in August from 75.0 in July, indicating a slight easing in optimism. Sixty-four percent of respondents expected conditions to be “better” six months from now, while 18 percent anticipated “worse” conditions, and another 18 percent saw them remaining “unchanged.”
Comments reflected a mixed outlook as some panelists noted they were looking forward to potential interest rate cuts by the Fed and expected tariffs to settle, while others expressed growing concern about how tariffs may affect demand. Overall, confidence remained solid, though slightly tempered compared with the prior month.
SURVEY RESULTS:
- Values reflect the percentage of respondents expecting "Better" conditions, plus one-half of the percentage of respondents expecting "Unchanged" conditions.
- A score of 50 or higher suggests conditions appropriate to expansion of the electroindustry sector.
- Please note that survey responses were collected from the period of August 13-27, 2025.
EBCI METHODOLOGY:
The EBCI indexes are based on the results of a monthly survey of senior managers at NEMA member companies and are designed to gauge the business environment of the electroindustry in North America (defined here as the United States and Canada).
The survey contains the following questions:
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How would you rate current economic conditions in North America, as they affect your business, compared to the previous month?
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Using the following scale, please describe the magnitude of change in economic conditions in North America this month compared to economic conditions last month? [Scale structured as follows: 5 (improved significantly), 4, 3, 2, 1, 0 (stayed the same), -1, -2, -3, -4, -5 (deteriorated significantly)]
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How do you expect economic conditions in North America, as they affect your business, to have changed six months from now?
Respondents are asked to indicate whether conditions are better, worse, or unchanged. The survey also provides space for respondents to comment on current conditions. These comments are included below the table containing the index levels.
The index value is the percentage of respondents expecting “Better” conditions, plus one-half of the percentage of respondents expecting “Unchanged” conditions, which follows the methodology used by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM; formerly the National Association of Purchasing Management) in the construction of their manufacturing index.
Reprinted by permission of the National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA)
