June 11 2025
NEMA Confidence Index Climbs to 57.7 Amid Renewed Stability
After two months of pessimism, manufacturer sentiment rebounds sharply
Each month, the National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA) publishes the Electroindustry Business Confidence Index (EBCI). The index is based on surveys of senior managers at NEMA member companies – designed to gauge the business environment of the electroindustry in North America. Member companies include most of the ten largest lighting manufacturers in North America, along with other manufacturers of lighting, electrical and medical imaging products.
After two months of steep pessimism, electroindustry sentiment rebounded sharply in May. According to NEMA’s latest Business Confidence Index, current conditions improved significantly, and optimism about the next six months surged to its highest level in over a year. While tariff uncertainty still lingers, most industry leaders now expect greater economic clarity and stability ahead. Full breakdowns of the data and commentary will follow.
This most recent ECBI shows how makers of electrical equipment view current and future market conditions. Below are the details:
The Current Conditions Index rebounded in May to 57.7, following a two-month decline that bottomed out at 16.7 in April. In April, none of the panelists reported improved conditions; however, sentiment picked up in May, with 23% of respondents indicating that conditions were “better.” Meanwhile, 69% said conditions remained “unchanged,” and 8% reported they had worsened. As in the previous month, panelists continued to express uncertainty regarding tariffs and the broader economy, though many remained hopeful that greater clarity would emerge soon. Despite concerns, order volumes have remained strong.
The median value for the magnitude of change in current conditions increased to +1.0, with the mean increasing to +0.4. Panelists are asked to report the magnitude of change on a scale ranging from –5 (deteriorated significantly) through 0 (unchanged) to +5 (improved significantly).
The Future Conditions Index surged to 92.3 in May, up sharply from 50.0 in April, reflecting a significant boost in optimism. A strong majority of panelists, 85% expected conditions to be “better” six months from now, while 15% anticipated conditions will remain “unchanged.” Notably, none foresaw worsening conditions. Panelist comments highlighted increased confidence that recent unrest will be resolved, and that greater policy stability lies ahead. Although some uncertainty remained, particularly around tariffs, the overall sentiment has improved markedly.
SURVEY RESULTS:
- Values reflect the percentage of respondents expecting "Better" conditions, plus one-half of the percentage of respondents expecting "Unchanged" conditions.
- A score of 50 or higher suggests conditions appropriate to expansion of the electroindustry sector.
- Please note that survey responses were collected from the period of May 12-23, 2025.
EBCI METHODOLOGY:
The EBCI indexes are based on the results of a monthly survey of senior managers at NEMA member companies and are designed to gauge the business environment of the electroindustry in North America (defined here as the United States and Canada).
The survey contains the following questions:
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How would you rate current economic conditions in North America, as they affect your business, compared to the previous month?
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Using the following scale, please describe the magnitude of change in economic conditions in North America this month compared to economic conditions last month? [Scale structured as follows: 5 (improved significantly), 4, 3, 2, 1, 0 (stayed the same), -1, -2, -3, -4, -5 (deteriorated significantly)]
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How do you expect economic conditions in North America, as they affect your business, to have changed six months from now?
Respondents are asked to indicate whether conditions are better, worse, or unchanged. The survey also provides space for respondents to comment on current conditions. These comments are included below the table containing the index levels.
The index value is the percentage of respondents expecting “Better” conditions, plus one-half of the percentage of respondents expecting “Unchanged” conditions, which follows the methodology used by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM; formerly the National Association of Purchasing Management) in the construction of their manufacturing index.
Reprinted by permission of the National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA)
