January 20, 2026
Orion Nudges Up Guidance, Banks on Big Retail Deal
First look at 2027 revenue forecast follows modest 2026 revision uptick
Orion Energy Systems, the micro-cap lighting and energy services firm based in Manitowoc, Wisconsin, released a modestly optimistic press release this morning, marking another cautious step forward rather than a leap. The company raised its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance by a slim margin — now forecasting between $84 million and $86 million, up from “approximately $84 million” previously. For a company that has spent the better part of two years trying to reestablish growth credibility, it’s a notable, if incremental, revision.
The company also provided forward-looking guidance for fiscal 2027: $95 million to $97 million in revenue, paired with positive adjusted EBITDA. That outlook might appear long-range, but Orion’s fiscal 2027 starts April 1 — just ten weeks from now. If the aim was to demonstrate visibility into next year’s pipeline, it comes with a caveat: in Orion’s world, timeframes and totals often stretch and slip.
Another Big Retail Win — With Familiar Asterisks
Orion’s headline news was the announcement of a $14 million to $15 million LED exterior lighting project from a major international retail chain, expected to begin in Q4 of FY26 and mostly wrap by the end of July 2026. This builds on a prior three-year maintenance contract with the same customer (believed to be The Home Depot) worth $42 million to $45 million, inked in October 2025.
In a sector where few lighting companies trumpet every win, Orion stands apart. Not necessarily because it wins more, but because it discloses more — especially when those contracts are large and forward-looking. This is common among small-cap publicly traded companies looking to frame a narrative of growth and momentum, particularly when quarterly financials remain flat.
But as we've noted in past Inside Lighting coverage, not all awarded revenue turns into booked revenue — at least not on time, and not always in full. Past Orion press releases touting future millions have sometimes met reality through back-page footnotes: project delays, customer deferrals, or macroeconomic curveballs like supply chain gridlock or elevated interest rates. This new retail deal is promising — but history suggests it should be taken as potential, not certainty.
Orion expects positive net income and adjusted EBITDA for Q3, marking a fifth consecutive quarter of profitability. But the update stops short of revising EPS estimates or detailing how much of FY27’s revenue depends on the newly announced retail project. Also missing: any mention of Orion’s capital position or the unresolved Voltrek earnout, which continues to complicate the company’s balance sheet. And while the FY27 guidance might sound forward-looking, that fiscal year begins April 1 — just weeks from now.
Orion is expected to release its third-quarter results for the period ending December 31, 2025, during the first half of February.
