November 10, 2026
Commercial Construction Pipeline Hits October Slowdown
$250+ million projects get rolling in California, North Carolina and Texas
For much of the past year, data centers have been the engine humming beneath commercial planning, pulling the Dodge Momentum Index higher even as other sectors stalled. In October, that engine sputtered. According to Dodge Construction Network, the index slid 9.0%, and nearly all of the damage traced back to the commercial side of the ledger, where data center and warehouse planning cooled sharply alongside softer activity in offices, hotels and parking structures.
Yet this is not a story of collapse. Institutional planning bent but held, buoyed by healthcare, public government and recreational projects, and it remains far ahead of where it stood a year ago. The real tension lies in the gap between the two halves of the index: one shaped by the unpredictable rhythms of hyperscale investment, the other by the slower, steadier cadence of hospitals and public buildings. For lighting manufacturers, agents and specifiers, October is a reminder that the pipeline is increasingly concentrated, and that a handful of massive projects can swing the outlook in either direction.
The DMI is a monthly measure based on the three-month moving value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year to 18 months.
Dodge Momentum Index
Commercial Planning
Institutional Planning
Market Analysis
"Institutional planning edged lower but remained resilient, supporting the Index in October. The commercial sector accounted for the large decline, driven by weaker data center and warehouse planning. Some volatility is to be expected, as data center activity fluctuates considerably from month to month, while mounting macroeconomic pressures continue to constrain other commercial sectors."
Sector Performance Highlights
Bright Spots
- Retail Stores: The only commercial sector to post growth in October
- Healthcare: Planning accelerated, anchoring the institutional segment
- Public Government Buildings: Planning activity picked up over the month
- Recreational Buildings: Joined healthcare and government in gaining ground
Areas of Weakness
- Data Centers and Warehouses: The primary drivers of the commercial decline
- Office Buildings and Hotels: Planning slowed amid macroeconomic pressure
- Parking Garages: Added to the broad commercial pullback
- Education and Religious Buildings: Softer planning trimmed institutional momentum
Year-over-Year Performance (Oct 2026 vs Oct 2025)
Major Projects Entering Planning in October
23 projects valued at $100 million or more entered planning during the month.
Reading the Commercial Slide
The year-over-year numbers sharpen the picture. Commercial planning sits 17.6% below October 2025, and stripping out data centers barely changes the result, leaving the segment down 16.6%. That comparison reflects the surge in activity Dodge recorded in late 2025, which set a high bar for this fall, but it also signals that weakness extends well beyond hyperscale projects into offices, hotels, warehouses and parking.
Institutional planning tells the opposite story. Up 33.4% from a year ago, the segment has become the stabilizing force in the index, led by healthcare and public building activity. Even this month's largest commercial entries were all data centers, underscoring how heavily the commercial pipeline now leans on a single, famously volatile project type.
Data Source: Dodge Construction Network
The DMI is a monthly measure based on the three-month moving value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year to 18 months.
