April 9, 2026
Construction Planning Growth Signals Uneven Market Recovery
Commercial planning jumps 7% on data centers, while institutional momentum falls 8.8% amid macro headwinds
The numbers tell a tale of two construction markets. Dodge Construction Network's March 2026 Momentum Index climbed a modest 1.8% to 250.5 — but beneath that headline figure lies a story of extraordinary concentration: a handful of colossal data center commitments are single-handedly keeping commercial planning aloft while the rest of the nonresidential building economy quietly pulls back. Strip out data centers, and the picture darkens considerably.
For a construction industry navigating tariff volatility, tightening credit, and an uncertain fiscal landscape in Washington, March's report offers both reassurance and caution in equal measure. The DMI remains elevated — up 25.8% year-over-year compared to March 2025 — a figure that reflects the pipeline momentum built during late 2025's planning surge.
Yet Sarah Martin, Associate Director of Forecasting at Dodge Construction Network, offered a pointed caveat: most sectors eased back last month, and for some, she said, "elevated macroeconomic risks are likely beginning to feed into planning decisions." That's a signal the industry would be wise not to dismiss.
About the Dodge Momentum Index: The DMI is a monthly measure based on the three-month moving value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year to 18 months.
| Index | Mar-26 | Feb-26 | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodge Momentum Index | 250.5 | 246.2 | +1.8% |
| Commercial Building | 319.4 | 298.6 | +7.0% |
| Institutional Building | 165.3 | 181.4 | -8.8% |
| Source: Dodge Construction Network (2000=100, Seasonally Adjusted) | |||
"Planning momentum in March was powered almost entirely by data center projects, with most other sectors easing back. For some categories, this reflects a natural reset after the outsized growth in late 2025. But for others, elevated macroeconomic risks are likely beginning to feed into planning decisions."
— Sarah Martin, Associate Director of Forecasting, Dodge Construction Network
Commercial Sector Performance
Commercial planning grew 7.0% in March — but that gain is almost entirely a data center story. All other commercial sectors retreated month-over-month. Strip out data centers, and commercial planning would be down 12.7% year-over-year, underscoring how narrowly concentrated the current expansion has become. Year-over-year with data centers included, commercial planning was up a robust 28.5% versus March 2025.
Institutional Sector Challenges
Institutional planning declined 8.8% in March, with weakness broadly spread across most categories. Only education and public buildings showed moderate gains. The segment remains up 19.6% year-over-year versus March 2025, but the month-over-month retreat signals that fiscal uncertainty and tightening public budgets may be trimming near-term project pipelines.
Major Projects Entering Planning — March 2026
54 projects valued at $100 million or more entered planning in March.
Commercial
Hamlet, North Carolina · 17 individual buildings
Dallas, Iowa · 10 individual buildings
Institutional
San Diego, California
Viera West, Florida
Camp Pendleton North, San Diego, California
Year-over-Year Performance (vs. March 2025)
Given persistent economic and fiscal uncertainty, volatility in planning activity will remain high. Data centers continue to distort the commercial headline figure — if all data center projects are excluded, commercial planning year-over-year would be down 12.7%. The narrowing base of growth is a structural risk worth monitoring as macroeconomic headwinds intensify heading into the second quarter of 2026.
Data Source: Dodge Construction Network
The DMI is a monthly measure based on the three-month moving value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year to 18 months.
