October 14, 2026
NEMA Survey Reveals Drop in Manufacturer Optimism
Future confidence slips despite continued strength in current business conditions
Each month, the National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA) publishes the Electroindustry Business Confidence Index (EBCI), a monthly survey designed to gauge business sentiment among North American electrical equipment manufacturers, including many major lighting companies. It is a pulse check: are manufacturers feeling better or worse than last month, and what do they expect six months out?
September brought a step back on both measures. The Current Conditions component fell to 57.1 from 65.8 in August, still in expansionary territory. Two-thirds of respondents said conditions were unchanged, and only 10 percent reported a deterioration. Respondents pointed to strong data center and renewable-energy demand, rising orders and quotations, and lengthening backlogs, while citing raw material costs, tariffs, inflation, interest rates and political uncertainty as persistent headwinds.
The six-month view cooled more noticeably. Future Conditions dropped to 52.4 from 68.4, sitting just above the 50 threshold. Optimists (33 percent) only narrowly outnumbered those expecting things to worsen (29 percent). Comments described cautious optimism about sustained demand and possible trade progress, tempered by concerns about steel and fuel costs.
A Note for Lighting Readers
The demand drivers respondents named this month, data centers and renewable energy, lean heavily toward power distribution and grid equipment. That activity does not always translate into architectural or commercial lighting orders, so lighting readers may want to weigh the headline figures accordingly.
Methodology: The EBCI is based on monthly surveys of senior managers at NEMA member companies, designed to gauge the business environment of the electroindustry across North America. Readings above 50 indicate expansionary conditions for the sector.
Source: National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA) Electroindustry Business Confidence Index (EBCI) survey. Used with permission.
