February 13, 2026
Commercial and Institutional Planning Lose Steam
$250+ million projects get rolling in Pennsylvania, Texas and Virginia
The construction industry entered 2026 with a reality check. After riding a wave of elevated planning activity through the final months of 2025—powered largely by an unprecedented data center boom—the Dodge Momentum Index retreated 6.3% in January, signaling that nonresidential building projects are "easing into a more sustainable growth pattern," according to Dodge Construction Network. The index fell to 272.7 from December's downwardly revised 291.0, with commercial planning declining 7.2% and institutional momentum slowing 4.4%.
Yet beneath the headline decline lies a more nuanced story. While nearly every commercial sector lost steam in January—retail stores being the lone exception—the year-over-year comparison still shows robust growth: the DMI stands 29% higher than January 2025, with institutional planning up 34% and commercial up 26%. Strip out the data center projects that have reshaped the construction landscape, and commercial planning still registers a 17% year-over-year gain. The industry isn't collapsing; it's recalibrating after an extraordinary run.
About the Dodge Momentum Index: The DMI is a monthly measure based on the three-month moving value of nonresidential building projects going into planning. It is shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year to 18 months, making it a valuable leading indicator for the construction industry.
January 2026 Key Metrics
| Metric | January 2026 | December 2025 | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodge Momentum Index | 272.4 | 291.0 | -6.3% |
| Commercial Building | 332.6 | 358.2 | -7.2% |
| Institutional Building | 198.6 | 207.8 | -4.4% |
"Planning momentum cooled in January across most commercial and institutional sectors. Data center projects continue to lead the way, but after elevated activity in late 2025, most nonresidential sectors are now easing into a more sustainable growth pattern."
— Sarah Martin, Associate Director of Forecasting, Dodge Construction Network
January Sector Performance
The January cooldown was broadly felt across the nonresidential landscape. On the commercial side, planning momentum slowed across all sectors with one exception: retail stores bucked the trend and posted gains. Meanwhile, the data center sector—which has been the undisputed driver of commercial growth—continued to attract major projects, though at a pace suggesting the market may be finding equilibrium after months of breakneck expansion.
Institutional planning presented a mixed picture. Education, healthcare, and public building projects all decelerated in January, reflecting broader uncertainty about fiscal conditions and funding availability. However, recreational and religious building projects continued their upward trajectory, providing pockets of resilience within the institutional segment.
Year-Over-Year Growth Remains Strong
When data center projects are excluded from commercial planning calculations, the sector still shows a healthy 17% year-over-year gain, demonstrating that underlying commercial construction demand extends well beyond the technology infrastructure boom that has dominated headlines.
Major Projects Entering Planning
A total of 35 projects valued at $100 million or more entered planning throughout January, maintaining the industry's focus on large-scale developments despite the month-over-month decline.
Largest Commercial Projects
Monongahela Township, Pennsylvania
Glen Allen, Virginia
Nesquehoning, Pennsylvania
Largest Institutional Projects
Fort Hood, Texas
Arlington, Virginia
Lancaster, Pennsylvania
January's pullback comes as the construction industry navigates persistent economic and fiscal uncertainty. While the month-over-month decline suggests a cooling off period, the year-over-year comparisons paint a picture of an industry that remains fundamentally healthy—particularly when viewed through the lens of historical planning levels. The data center surge continues to reshape commercial construction, but even beyond that single sector, planning activity maintains considerable strength compared to pre-2025 levels.
Data Source: Dodge Construction Network
The DMI is a monthly measure based on the three-month moving value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year to 18 months.
