January 3, 2024
Lighting Predictions for 2024
Lighting prognostications for the new year involve generative A.I., lighting controls markets and European expansion
In the cluttered world of podcasts, the "Get a Grip on Lighting" podcast, hosted by Michael Colligan and co-host Greg Ehrich, has emerged as a favorite among Lighting People in the U.S. and Canada. An annual tradition is the January appearance of Al Uszynski from Inside Lighting, where they delve into lighting trends and predictions for the upcoming year.
This year, however, listeners noticed a change in tradition. The anticipated "Lighting Predictions for the New Year" article from Inside Lighting, usually published in December, was missing. Addressing this on the podcast, Uszynski explained the absence. Due to a combination of personal commitments and project management challenges, the article was not published as planned. Acknowledging this oversight, Uszynski expressed regret for the lapse but reaffirmed Inside Lighting's dedication to continuing the tradition in future years.
The trio adapted their approach for this year's "Get a Grip on Lighting" predictions podcast, improvising their annual episode. Instead of discussing the predictions of industry thought leaders from the Inside Lighting article, they reviewed past years' predictions to analyze their accuracy and impact on the lighting industry. Channeling the spirit of lighting industry clairvoyance, and in the presence of the Lighting Industry Crystal Ball, each member contributed their own predictions for 2024, providing a fresh set of insights and expectations for the year ahead.
Past Predictions Review:
(2:42) 2021 Prediction by Colligan: There will be a significant increase in public awareness of the negative environmental and health impacts of light pollution due to the deployment of poorly designed and implemented LED outdoor lighting.
Consensus evaluation: Partially true. There has been an increase in news coverage and public awareness, but it's still emerging, not widespread.
(4:58) 2022 Prediction by Ehrich: Increased collaboration among various lighting industry organizations for the common goal of streamlining and leadership emergence.
Consensus evaluation: Partially true. There's been some increased convergence and collaboration, notably with NCQLP and also between IES and IALD, but not as extensive as predicted.
(7:00) 2023 Prediction by Uszynski: Challenges in hiring skilled workers in lighting design firms and electrical contractors will lead to increased project delays.
Consensus evaluation: True. Labor costs have risen, and there's been a shortage of skilled professionals, affecting projects.
2024 Predictions:
(11:23) Uszynski: Generative AI will increasingly influence the lighting industry, with dedicated teams deeply exploring its applications in 2024. In future years, it might lead to more efficient and accurate designs, like integrating electrical drawings with AI for quicker starting points in design of similar projects, middle schools, for example.
(18:50) Ehrich: Lighting distributors will embrace digital lighting controls more in 2024, driven by increasing demand for flexible and efficient lighting solutions in various settings like offices, warehouses, and schools.
(27:31) Colligan: Skepticism about the current trend in lighting controls. He predicts a "boom-bust" cycle for digital lighting controls, with the industry realizing that customers might not want as much control or complexity as is being developed.
BONUS PREDICTION: Colligan and Uszynski express differing views on whether buildings will be wired similarly to today's methods in 100 years.
(34:19) Uszynski’s Bold Prediction: Described twice as a "total dart throw" prediction, Uszynski shared clues and rationale supporting his prediction that Acuity Brands, North America's largest lighting manufacturer, will expand its presence in Europe significantly. This expansion may occur through an acquisition, potentially focusing on the lighting controls segment.
As the "Get a Grip on Lighting" podcast navigated through an improvised and intriguing mix of predictions for 2024, the stage is set for a year of potential surprises and significant advancements in the lighting industry. We look forward to seeing you in 11 to 12 months for the 2025 edition of the "Lighting Predictions" article and podcast.
