Building Forecast: Healthy Recovery in 2022

2021 01 AIA graphic construction 2.png


A recent AIA report pulls expert consensus insights on 2021-2022 non-residential building

The American Institute of Architects (AIA) has recently issued a report that pulls consensus economic forecasts for non-residential building construction in 2021-2022.

The Panelists are:

  • Dodge Data & Analytics
  • IHS Economics
  • Moody’s Analytics
  • FMI
  • ConstructConnect
  • Associated Builders and Contractors
  • Wells Fargo Securities

The AIA Consensus Forecast shows that Health and Public Safety projects are expected slight increases while most other sectors are forecasted to decline in 2020.  We were most surprised by the "Retail and Other Commercial" sector to be forecasted as a consensus 3.5% decline, considering the pandemic's large negative impact on many brick and mortar retailers.

The AIA Consensus Forecast abstract is below with more information available on the AIA website.

Nonresidential building spending to decline through 2021
A reasonably healthy recovery is expected in 2022.


WASHINGTON –  Slowing demand at architecture firms last year is expected to contribute to a projected 5.7 percent decline in construction spending for 2021, according to a new consensus forecast from The American Institute of Architects (AIA).

The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel—comprised of leading economic forecasters—expects steep declines this year in construction spending on office buildings, hotels, and amusement and recreation centers. Health care and public safety are the only major sectors that are slated to produce gains in 2021.

Growth in nonresidential construction is expected for 2022, with three percent gains projected for the overall building market matched by both the commercial and institutional sectors.

“The December jobs report confirmed that the economy needs additional support in order to move to a sustainable economic expansion,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “As pandemic concerns begin to wane and economic activity begins to pick up later in 2021, there is likely to be considerable pent-up demand for nonresidential space, leading to anticipated growth in construction spending in 2022.”


View the interactive Consensus Construction Forecast >


Complete details on the latest Consensus Construction Forecast can be found on AIA’s website.


2021 01 AIA graphic construction.png

Source:  American Institute of Architects

About AIA

Founded in 1857, AIA consistently works to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through more than 200 international, state and local chapters, AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public wellbeing.

AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation, and world. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards.


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January 22, 2020

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