October 7, 2026
Construction Planning Rises on Institutional Project Growth
But without data centers, commercial planning sits 15% below September 2025 levels
For most of the past year, the story of nonresidential planning has been written in server racks. Data centers swelled the commercial pipeline, propped up the index and drowned out nearly everything else. September told a different story. According to Dodge Construction Network, the Dodge Momentum Index climbed 2.4% for the month, and the push came not from hyperscalers but from classrooms, hospital wings and government buildings. Institutional planning surged while commercial planning slipped, as cooling data center and warehouse activity outweighed quieter gains in retail, hotels, offices and parking garages.
The shift matters. Hospitals in the Carolinas now share the top of the planning ledger with server farms, and institutional work is running well ahead of last year's pace. Strip data centers out of the commercial numbers and the year-over-year picture turns sharply negative, a reminder of how much of the recent boom has rested on a single building type. For lighting manufacturers, agents and contractors, the signal points to a broader, steadier pipeline taking shape for late 2027.
The DMI is a monthly measure based on the three-month moving value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year to 18 months.
Dodge Momentum Index
Institutional Planning
Commercial Planning
Market Analysis
"Institutional planning led this month's growth, alongside a strong uptick in education, healthcare, and government building planning. Milder growth was seen across several other commercial sectors, as well. As steady growth resumes across most nonresidential sectors, construction spending in those sectors should see a marginally stronger late 2027."
Sector Performance Highlights
Gaining Momentum
- Institutional (+9.4%): Robust growth in education, healthcare and public building planning
- Commercial Bright Spots: Planning strengthened for retail stores, hotels, office buildings and parking garages
Losing Steam
- Data Centers: Slower planning momentum after a surge in late 2025
- Warehouses: Softer activity that, with data centers, pulled commercial planning down 1.3%
Year-over-Year Performance (Sep 2026 vs Sep 2025)
Major Projects Entering Planning in September
45 projects valued at $100 million or more entered planning during September.
The Data Center Question
The commercial segment remains heavily shaped by data centers. With those projects included, commercial planning sits 3.0% below September 2025. Remove them, and the segment falls 14.9% from year-ago levels, reflecting the surge in activity seen in late 2025. Even so, three of the month's largest commercial entries were data centers, showing that the sector is cooling rather than collapsing.
Industry Outlook
With institutional planning up 17.2% from a year ago and steady growth resuming across most nonresidential sectors, Dodge expects marginally stronger construction spending in late 2027. Healthcare and education work, concentrated this month in the Carolinas, offers a more diversified base of opportunity than the data center wave that dominated the past year.
Data Source: Dodge Construction Network
The DMI is a monthly measure based on the three-month moving value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year to 18 months.
