10.5 Illuminating Predictions for 2021
As the lighting industry emerges from the pandemic-impacted year of 2020, we collected some perspectives from design, manufacturing, industry associations, sales agency and distribution to see what the year 2021 may have in store for us.
Below are 11.5 Predictions for the new year. (Bonus content of one previosly & mistakenly ignored prediction was added on December 22.)
"In a post-COVID-19 era, I believe workspace environments will evolve to be more comparable to hospitality gathering spaces. Consequently, I see an explosion of dynamic color-tunable systems being specified by lighting designers responding to this creative, artful, and immersive movement. Bring it on!"
Steven Rosen, FIALD, President and Creative Director
“Market recovery from Covid-19 will be slow. We expect post-pandemic market recovery from 2019 levels to be achieved by 2023, maybe 2022 in a more optimistic scenario, and as late as 2025 for some sectors. Approximately 40% of the global lighting corporate assets have changed hands in the last 5 years. I believe rebound from Covid-19 will offer growth and market share opportunities for manufacturers who can commercialize and scale new technologies and innovation.”
Kraig Kasler, President
Cooper Lighting Solutions
"The years of science and research of Light and Health, often referred to as Human Centric Lighting (HCL) will culminate to reach a consensus across national and international authorities on light. This will lead to development of Recommended Practices (RP)- informed by scientifically validated data. These RPs will be a catalyst for adoption and growth of Human Centric Lighting in the designer and specifier communities and will also serve to begin the creation of standards on this important field."
Mark McClear, Chief Operating Officer
"The lighting profession will be transformed by the social changes that are taking place in our society. I predict that lighting along with all architecture and design professions will be more diverse, equitable, and inclusive, reflecting the communities that it serves. And that a more diverse profession will generate more creative and responsive lighting solutions."
Edward Bartholomew, IALD, LC, LEED AP
Bartholomew | Lighting
"UVC and Germicidal Lighting sales will not increase substantially in 2021. The uncertainty around their efficacy and suitability to purpose, regulatory issues, and misleading claims by manufacturers will prevent mass adoption for at least 2-3 years."
Ruby Jadwet, CEO
Truly Green Solutions
"2021 will be a year that will see more engagement of the global lighting community working together to solve some of our key topical issues, such as energy and environmental conservation, food supplies and human health improvements. The forced electronic meetings of 2020, while isolating us from being in the same room, have shown us the potential for more productive collaboration and inclusiveness in spite of our place on this planet. If anything, we have learned that working together is more necessary than ever, and we foresee the expanded use of electronic media to form some truly illuminating collaborations that will fundamentally change the way our industry communicates, learns, and operates."
Timothy Licitra, Executive Director
Illuminating Engineering Society
"There will be an acquisition or divestiture of a major conglomerate."
Travis Jones, Vice President & General Manager, Lighting
"We expect disinfection lighting (UVC) to continue to gain traction under the increased interest to provide a healthy and safe workplace. With the pandemic, the importance of hygiene and indoor air quality has gained real traction and even in the post-pandemic era, there will be additional focus on water disinfection/purification and upper-air, surface and object disinfection in a variety of end user segments. New safety protocols and standards will foster improved effectiveness and credibility of these solutions. In addition to these safety measures, the deployment of dedicated controls systems designed to ensure safe installation usage will provide peace of mind for the day to day users for these solutions."
Joseph Melchiors, VP, Sales
Cooper Lighting Solutions
"The general public will become aware of the real and disastrous environmental and human health consequences of light pollution, made magnitudes worse by the recent and ongoing deployment and conversion of outdoor lighting infrastructure to LED; which is largely poorly designed and mostly 4000 - 5000 kelvin. The irony will not be lost when the public realizes that the vast majority of this was subsidized by their electricity bills and done in the name of environmentalism."
Michael Colligan, Host
Get a Grip on Lighting Podcast
"The challenges of 2020 provided us the opportunity to evaluate our company’s go to market and operational processes to connect with customers in a more meaningful way. We see 2021 starting with uncertainty, but as the year progresses a resurgence and renewed confidence in construction due to the medical advances with COVID."
David Nocar, Principal
"A new focus on climate change will generate energy policies that focus on decarbonization and zero net energy. Government, municipalities and building owners will be investing in systems- based approaches to energy optimization. While new construction in the commercial sector will be down, stimulus programs will work to drive retrofits as well as a renewed focus on codes and standards. We will see a flooding of the market for new GUV products as potential peaks, yet few standards exist."
Tina Halfpenny, Executive Director
...and we throw in our own prediction for good measure...
"Many lighting manufacturers that have relied heavily on the sectors of commercial office, retail and hospitality that didn't already start implementing a major course-changing pivot to other markets, will struggle mightily in 2021. We will see more brands pursue adjacent businesses like air disinfection, acoustic panels, 'economy versions' of existing high end products and alternate sales channels."
Al Uszynski, Principal
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